The Irish Election—Lessons Learned (IRISH LAW TIMES)
Proportional representation in Ireland’s constituency-based system is not a substantive guarantee that the governing coalition has a majority of the voters behind it.
IRISH LAW TIMES (forth. circa Feb. 2025)
Professor Seth Barrett Tillman* & Daniel Epstein–O’Dowd, LLB*
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On the 29th of November 2024, the people of Ireland went to the polls and the two dominant parties of government—Fianna Fáil & Fine Gael—were returned with just shy of half the seats in the 34th Dáil. One asks the question, did FF/FG combined achieve a majority vote? If by a majority, do we mean a majority of all eligible voters? At 23%—the answer is they most certainly did not. If by a majority, do we mean a majority of all valid votes cast—including votes that were cast but failed to elect a TD? At 39%—then the answer is again, they certainly did not. In fact, even if one counts only those valid votes cast which actually elected a TD, FF’s and FG’s combined vote share, for 86 seats, was 49.9%. An achievement of sorts, yes, but hardly a national popular mandate.
There is nothing magical about 86 members having just over or, in this case, just under 50% of the vote. Just as 86 members might have been elected with slightly more or slightly less than a majority of votes, the remaining 88 members, elected to parties or as independents, might have more or less than a majority of votes. For example, the 88 members of the Dail elected with the fewest votes, were elected with only 44% of the valid votes cast which elected a TD. Indeed, the 97 members of the Dail elected with the fewest votes—which would be a healthy 10 seat majority—were elected with under 50% of the vote! This illustrates that a clear majority of TDs can control the Dáil, even though they lack support from a majority of the People’s vote.
Proportional representation in Ireland’s constituency-based system is not a substantive guarantee that the governing coalition has a majority of the voters behind it—much less a substantial popular mandate. At an intuitive level, a governing coalition systematically composed of members taking their seats with less than quota at the last count, will tend to have fewer votes than a government systematically composed of stronger members coming in over quota at the first count. Similarly, a government composed of members from constituencies with relatively lower quotas will tend to lack a popular mandate, compared to a government whose members come from constituencies with relatively larger quotas.
Many people in Ireland believe otherwise. The invocation of “proportional representation” in their minds confirms the belief that any governing coalition (with even a narrow majority of TDs) must have a majority of the popular vote behind it. However, this is simply not the case—as the 29th November election demonstrates. Again, the 97 seats held by TDs drawing the fewest votes could form a governing coalition, but that coalition and government would have been elected with less than 50% of the vote.
The question is: What to do about it?
Read our full article & proposed solutions here: “The Irish Election—Lessons Learned | IRISH LAW TIMES (forth. circa Feb. 2025)”